Calibration Dashboard

Public transparency dashboard showing forecast calibration and Brier scores across GeneMap prediction domains.

Overall Calibration

Overall0.152Superforecaster baseline: 0.120Adequate

Phase Transitions0.128Superforecaster baseline: 0.120Excellent

Approval Forecasts0.197Superforecaster baseline: 0.120Adequate

Predicted probability vs. observed frequency. Points sized by forecast count. The dashed diagonal represents perfect calibration.

Reference Class	Brier Score	Forecasts	Rating
Gene therapy Phase III oncology	0.128	45	Excellent
Gene therapy Phase II rare disease	0.197	32	Adequate
Cell therapy FDA approval	0.143	28	Excellent
ASO Phase III neurological	0.221	19	Adequate
mRNA vaccine platform	0.089	56	Excellent

Recently resolved forecasts with their predicted probabilities and outcomes.

Forecast	Predicted	Outcome	Resolved
VERVE-102 Phase II primary endpoint met	72%	Yes	2026-04-28
Casgevy EU approval by 2026-Q1	85%	Yes	2026-03-15
Zynteglo US market withdrawal	45%	No	2026-02-20
Luxturna label expansion pediatric	38%	No	2026-01-12
SRP-9001 accelerated approval	62%	Yes	2025-12-08